Russia has enough resources to continue its war for at least another two years. Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Chairman of the Kyiv Security Forum (KSF) and Ukraine's first wartime Prime Minister, made this assessment on Espreso TV.
"If you look at the state of the Russian economy, nothing has changed. There are two pedals: one is gas, the other is oil," he said, adding that Russia's oil and gas revenues have remained practically unchanged over the past four years. This has been made possible by increased sales of Russian energy resources to China and India despite sanctions.
"They earn around $130 billion from oil and gas. This figure is comparable to the amount of funding allocated to the war against Ukraine," the Chairman of the KSF said, pointing out that the difficulty with sanctions lies not in their introduction, but in their implementation and enforcement.
"There are no market mechanisms in Russia. It is now just one huge military factory. Can the Russian central bank print rubles? Of course it can. They have 30 years of experience in this. Well, inflation will be 100% instead of 10%. But the so-called 'great Russian people' will tolerate it," Yatsenyuk said.
"Russia is spending 38% of its 2026 budget on the war and the security sector. This shows that Putin has no plans to stop," the former Prime Minister said.
"In the long run, sanctions are effective. The Russian economy is in bad shape. It is 'coughing.' It does not have pneumonia yet, but it already has bronchitis. And this bronchitis will turn into pneumonia and become fatal in only one case: if we put pressure on India and China, as key players in the purchase of hydrocarbons, and China in particular, as Russia's key ally in financing the war in Ukraine," Arseniy Yatsenyuk said.