The expiration of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, along with increasing discussion about the dangers of dismantling the nuclear non-proliferation regime, is directly related to russia's war against Ukraine. The world is entering a dangerous phase in which the fundamental security arrangements established over decades are losing their effectiveness.
Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Chairman of the Kyiv Security Forum (KSF), Prime Minister of Ukraine (2014–2016), made this statement during the KSF Special Session on the Global Situation and the Prospects for Peace in Ukraine "12 Years of Russia's War Against Ukraine: What Comes Next?".
According to Arseniy Yatsenyuk, moscow's nuclear threats in 2022 changed Western partners' calculations. However, the destruction of the nuclear security architecture began in 2014 when russia violated the Budapest Memorandum and attacked Ukraine, despite its nuclear status.
He emphasises that today, 19% of Ukrainian territory remains occupied, russian army losses exceed one million killed and injured, and the russian economy, finance, and military-industrial complex are in critical condition. Nevertheless, there are concerns about a possible russian attack on NATO countries.
"The world is already discussing new risks, such as the violation of the nuclear non-proliferation regime and the accumulation of nuclear weapons. But I believe that russia has already used nuclear weapons. The threat of their use is a new form of deployment," the politician said.
At the same time, when assessing the prospects, Arseniy Yatsenyuk admits that the basic scenario for the near future is the continuation of hostilities. He claims that russia, over the past 12 years, has spent approximately $350 billion more on the war than Ukraine and its allies, while German intelligence suggests that moscow's actual war expenditure is 66% higher than the officially declared amount. Nevertheless, he believes that the kremlin is not demonstrating any willingness to engage in genuine negotiations.
"If you look at the composition of the russian delegation, you will notice that the military is conducting diplomatic negotiations. To me, this is clear evidence that russia is not prepared to end the war or make peace," he concluded.
Open Ukraine is an international foundation established by Arseniy Yatsenyuk in July 2007 to strengthen Ukraine's authority in the world. The foundation organises the Kyiv Security Forum every year. This leading international discussion platform focuses on issues of war and peace. The foundation also organises the Youth Kyiv Security Forum to develop a new generation of Ukrainian leaders.