Putin has no interest in reaching agreements with Ukraine and intends to wear it down militarily, economically and politically. This was emphasised by Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Chairman of the Kyiv Security Forum (KSF) and Prime Minister of Ukraine from 2014 to 2016, during a special KSF discussion entitled ‘How should the West respond to Russia’s escalation?’.
“Putin believes he has sufficient resources to strike Ukraine with ballistic and cruise missiles. His aim is to cause a blackout and leave Ukrainians in the cold this winter. Secondly, he believes that, through normal democratic processes in Europe, far-right, effectively pro-Russian forces will prevail in various EU member states. And thirdly, he also realises that he has an ally – China,” Yatsenyuk noted.
According to him, Russia’s war against Ukraine is part of a broader geopolitical confrontation aimed at reshaping the global world order, “displacing” the United States, fragmenting the EU and “ensuring that dictators and tyrants take over the world”.
At the same time, he said, Russia still retains the capacity to finance the war. Yatsenyuk noted that Russian budget revenues have fallen by around 7 per cent, though this decline is smaller than expected at the start of the year. Meanwhile, the rise in global oil prices against the backdrop of the war in the Middle East has enabled Russia to offset some of its losses and continue funding the war.
The Kyiv Security Forum’s special discussions are held as part of the “Kyiv Security Forum: Deep Strike” project. This is a series of expert discussions on pressing issues and key trends in the fields of security, the economy and Ukraine’s foreign policy. The project aims to provide in-depth analysis of the most significant challenges shaping the country’s future.
The Kyiv Security Forum (KSF), founded by the Arseniy Yatsenyuk ‘Open Ukraine’ Foundation, is Ukraine’s leading international discussion platform on issues of war and peace. Prominent international leaders, politicians, diplomats, experts, activists and journalists take part in KSF events. The platform operates on several levels simultaneously: keeping Ukraine at the forefront of the global agenda; expanding our country’s circle of international partners; and building expertise on current security issues.