Russia wants to use the so-called ‘energy truce’ to secure the de facto lifting of sanctions relating to the supply of petroleum products to the global market. This was stated by Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Chairman of the Kyiv Security Forum and Prime Minister of Ukraine from 2014 to 2016, during an appearance on the ‘Espreso’ television channel.
The first significant sign, he said, is Russia’s demonstrative willingness to hold talks exclusively with the US, whilst Europe is not involved in this process.
Another dimension of Russia’s rhetoric about a ‘ceasefire’ is domestic politics. According to Yatsenyuk, the Kremlin is using it in the run-up to the so-called elections in Russia – which do not actually exist there.
“The Kremlin is sending a signal to Russians: ‘See, we told you the situation would return to normal’. An oil and gas state, which has reached the point where it has no petroleum products at its petrol stations, will nevertheless resume supplies,” said the KSF Chairman.
At the same time, Yatsenyuk emphasised that the lifting of sanctions remains Putin’s strategic goal.
“Putin is playing a high-stakes game. Russia’s statements clearly reveal a demand for the de facto lifting of sanctions relating to the supply of petroleum products to the global market. The Russians are insisting on the need for the free transport of oil by sea – that is, they are effectively demanding the lifting of sanctions against Russia’s so-called ‘shadow fleet’. And they will certainly press for a review of the price cap that limits the cost of Russian oil,” Yatsenyuk noted.
Chairman of the KSF also emphasised the fundamental difference between strikes on energy facilities in Ukraine and those in Russia.
“In Ukraine, strikes on energy facilities constitute a humanitarian disaster, whereas attacks on Russian energy facilities amount to the destruction of Russia’s military infrastructure and war machine,” Yatsenyuk emphasised.